Add Zee Business as a Preferred Source
Is world heading for another El Niño in 2026? WMO report signals a shift
Emerging signs of El Niño: A new Global Seasonal Climate Update from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) suggests the Equatorial Pacific is warming again. Sea-surface temperatures are rising, and that shift is raising the possibility that El Niño conditions could return as early as May–July 2026.
)
The report highlights that most parts of the world are expected to see above-normal land temperatures over the next few months, while rainfall is likely to become more uneven across regions. Image: AI-Generated
Written By: ZeeBiz WebTeam
Updated: Sat, Apr 25, 2026
04:15 PM IST
04:15 PM IST
Emerging signs of El Niño: A new Global Seasonal Climate Update from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) suggests the Equatorial Pacific is warming again. Sea-surface temperatures are rising, and that shift is raising the possibility that El Niño conditions could return as early as May–July 2026.
The report highlights that most parts of the world are expected to see above-normal land temperatures over the next few months, while rainfall is likely to become more uneven across regions.
Models pointing in one direction
WMO scientists say the year began under neutral ENSO conditions, but that picture is changing. Climate models are now increasingly aligned, pointing toward the development of El Niño in the coming months.
TRENDING NOW
As WMO’s Chief of Climate Prediction, Wilfran Moufouma Okia noted, confidence in the forecast is relatively high, although not absolute. He pointed out that this time of year brings what scientists call the “spring predictability barrier,” which often makes early forecasts less certain. Accuracy typically improves after April as more data becomes available.
What El Niño actually means
El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña, are phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Together, they form one of the most influential climate drivers on Earth.
In simple terms, El Niño develops when waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm. It tends to show up every two to seven years and can last anywhere from several months to about a year.
The WMO also makes it clear that labels like “super El Niño” aren’t part of its official classification system, even though they are sometimes used in media coverage.
A warming world in the background
El Niño events have long been associated with spikes in global temperature. The WMO notes that 2024 became the hottest year on record, influenced by a strong El Niño event and long-term human-driven warming.
Climate change, according to the agency, doesn’t necessarily make El Niño more frequent or more intense. But it does raise the stakes. A warmer ocean and atmosphere mean more energy in the system, which can intensify impacts like heatwaves, heavy rainfall, and flooding.
Uneven global impacts
The effects of El Niño rarely look the same everywhere.
Some regions tend to get wetter than usual—parts of southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and sections of Central Asia often fall into that category. On the other hand, places like Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia typically lean drier.
There are knock-on effects too. During the northern hemisphere summer, El Niño can increase hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific while suppressing cyclone formation in the Atlantic.
What 2026 could look like
For May–June–July 2026, current forecasts suggest a broad pattern of above-normal temperatures across most land areas. The strongest warming signals are expected over southern North America, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, and northern Africa.
Rainfall, however, doesn’t show a single clear pattern. Instead, it remains highly region-dependent—some areas could see excess rain while others may trend drier.
Where things stand now
As of April 2026, ENSO remains in a neutral phase following the end of the 2025–26 La Niña. But that neutrality may not last long. Multiple forecast models now point toward a transition into El Niño conditions during the northern hemisphere summer or autumn, potentially lasting into the end of the year.
The WMO is expected to release its next update in late May, which should give a clearer picture for the June–August season. Meanwhile, regional climate forums, including the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, are set to release monsoon forecasts on April 28, followed by a global briefing for UN agencies on April 29.
India’s monsoon outlook
In India, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already flagged a weaker-than-normal monsoon for 2026—the first such forecast in three years.
Rainfall between June and September is expected to come in at around 92% of the long-period average, with a possible variation of ±5%. The long-period average itself, based on 1971–2020 data, is 87 cm.
With ANI Inputs
Get Latest Business News, Stock Market Updates and Videos; Check your tax outgo through Income Tax Calculator and save money through our Personal Finance coverage. Check Business Breaking News Live on Zee Business Twitter and Facebook. Subscribe on YouTube.
RECOMMENDED STORIES
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
RELATED NEWS
India likely to see below-normal monsoon in 2026 amid El Nino concerns: Skymet
Monsoon Forecast 2025: What latest IMD monsoon prediction means for farmers; here's everything you need to know
El Niño ending; at least 60% chance of La Niña developing during July-Sept: WMO
Global 2024 staple food supplies to be strained by dry weather, export curbs
As El Nino heads into winter, look out for its ripple effects on economy, markets
